Significance and Continuation Beyond Stage 2
Preliminary analysis suggests that the levers presented:
- Have gigantic biofuel production potential, with application of single levers in single countries significant relative to global transportation fuel demand.
- Have been the subject of little or no detailed analysis to date.
- Are usually not considered in the debate over land availability for bioenergy production.
- Have potential to be "no regrets" options in that they involve currently managed lands with neutral or positive anticipated environmental impacts and increased farm income.
If the potential anticipated based on preliminary analysis is confirmed for even some of these levers during Stage 2, this would likely transform the debate on land availability for bioenergy production and "food vs fuel" and would illuminate desirable paths to a beneficial bioenergy-intensive future.
Results of Stage 2 are expected to provide a valuable, new context for consideration in Stage 3 of transition paths and policies incorporating analysis of macroeconomic, environmental, ethical and equity issues as well as local-scale effects on rural economies.
The figure below illustrates the relationship between Stage 2 and Stage 3 activities, and in particular the potential of these activities to enable consideration of interpolated rather than extrapolated futures. In addition to informing understanding of the role of bioenergy within a sustainable future, it is hoped that the GSB project will motivate in the near term exemplary projects that tangibly demonstrate the potential of bioenergy to be gracefully and beneficially produced while honoring other land-use priorities.
Interpolated and Extrapolated Resource Futures.