Stage 2 Approach and Structure
Stage 2 activities address model development, key objectives and constraints, and scenario analysis, and are organized into 6 tasks as follows:
I. Model development
- Task 1. Global pasture productivity
- Task 2. Energy crop productivity
II. Key objectives/constraints
- Task 3. Food security
- Task 4. Soil fertility
III. Scenario analysis
- Task 5. Making room for bioenergy
- Task 6. Multiple benefits
Tasks 1 and 2 address development of first-of-a-kind models foundational to analysis of bioenergy. Both pasture productivity and energy crop productivity models will be based on geographically-distributed data and thus inherently incorporate water availability and are amenable to consideration of climate change. Tasks 3 and 4 address topics that are simultaneously objectives and constrains in development of bioenergy: food security and soil fertility. Scenario analysis will be directed both toward making room for bioenergy while gracefully honoring other priorities (Task 5) and toward achieving multiple human benefits via a systemic approach to food and bioenergy production (Task 6).
Wherever possible, the GSB project will incorporate and build upon preexisting and ongoing analysis by other organizations. Examples of topics for which the GSB project expects to draw extensively from others' work include biomass conversion efficiencies, productivity of feed and food crops, food supply chain efficiency, fuel demand, efficiency of energy utilization, inventory of burned lands, and development of sustainability standards.
The overall objective of analysis undertaken during Stage 2 is to develop new understanding of the potential for very large scale bioenergy production. We do not seek to address all bioenergy feedstock options and conversion processes, and we do not intend to address the domain of the literally dozens of efforts worldwide aimed at developing a general framework for evaluating the sustainability of bioenergy processes. Consistent with an emphasis on desirable futures and exploration of potential, the GSB project will seek to frame analyses in ways that avoid spending large amounts of time on options offering marginal benefits and/or involving difficult tradeoffs.
For example, we will focus on increasing productivity from currently managed lands, and will not consider production from land identified as ecologically sensitive or land whose conversion to bioenergy production would entail prohibitively large carbon emissions.
Similarly, we anticipate modeling energy crop productivity as a function of precipitation without irrigation, again avoiding a complex set of issues. Energy crops with neutral or positive environmental attributes – e.g., with respect to soil fertility, water quality, and wildlife habitat – will be emphasized over crops that have clear negative impacts.
To limit analytical complexity and avoid making judgments about how much the world will or will not change in the future, analysis in Stage 2 will be calibrated relative to current practice where practical. Transition dynamics will be addressed in Stage 3. The need to consider economic aspects may be anticipated during Stage 2. However, the main focus of Stage 2 is to be the physical possibility and it is desired that economics not be brought to bear in a way that constrains future possibility by current circumstances.
Stage 2 activities are structured in terms of tasks carried out by working groups that will generally have international representation. Each task will include substantial analysis that is forward-looking, global, and involves multiple bioenergy crops. Analysis that has a more local focus (national, subcontinental, or continental), addresses next steps more than potential, and/or is crop-specific will also be undertaken. Including this latter category of analysis in the GSB project is motivated by a desire to validate global analysis, illustrate and investigate near-term possibilities, and lay a foundation for activities to be undertaken during Stage 3 of the project. It is envisioned that each task will target one or more peer-reviewed papers, and that these papers will provide the basis for further communications intended to reach a broader audience.